Tuesday, 23 February 2016

Syria truce: Will this one be different?

(CNN) Another day, another announcement on a truce in Syria. The latest met with optimism, skepticism and a whole lot of questions. Russia and the United States announced Monday that a truce among some but not all of the groups fighting inside Syria will go into effect at midnight Friday. The "cessation of hostilities" is the result of talks between the two countries as co-chairs of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG), they said in a joint statement.
The countries proposed that the truce begin at 00:00 (Damascus time) on Friday February 27. "Any party engaged in military or paramilitary hostilities in Syria, other than 'Daesh,' 'Jabhat al-Nusra,' or other terrorist organizations designated by the U.N. Security Council will indicate to the Russian Federation or the United States, as co-chairs of the ISSG, their commitment to and acceptance of the terms for the cessation of hostilities by no later than 12:00 (Damascus time) on February 26, 2016," the statement says.
    Daesh is another name for ISIS. The main opposition group in Syria, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, issued a statement expressing "preliminary approval to reach a temporary truce."
    The opposition group also called for guarantees that Russia, Iran and sectarian militias would stop the fighting.

    Supporting actions

    The U.S. and Russia said they plan to share information on the groups who are pledging to put down their arms. This is so that U.S., Russian and Syrian forces do not attack groups that are abiding by the cessation of hostilities. "The Russian Federation and the United States will establish a communication hotline and, if necessary and appropriate, a working group to exchange relevant information after the cessation of hostilities has gone into effect," their statement said.
    "Russia will conduct the necessary work with Damascus and the legitimate Syrian leadership. We expect that the United States will do the same with regard to their allies and the groups they support," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an address published on the Kremlin website.

    'Moment of promise'

    U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the draft document promising, but said in a statement that its success requires compliance by all parties involved.
    "If implemented and adhered to, this cessation will not only lead to a decline in violence, but also continue to expand the delivery of urgently needed humanitarian supplies to besieged areas and support a political transition to a government that is responsive to the desires of the Syrian people," he said.
    "This is a moment of promise, but the fulfillment of that promise depends on actions."

    Are there loopholes?

    The terms of the agreement do not call for a total surrender of arms.
    Warring parties are asked to commit "to proportionate use of force (i.e., no greater than required to address an immediate threat) if and when responding in self-defense."
    Asked at a Monday briefing whether this could be misused to continue attacks, State Department spokesman Mark Toner acknowledged setting benchmarks and monitoring the cessation of hostilities won't be easy.
    "There's not going to be any force on the ground or monitors on the ground to look at this, other than where we get information from in terms of intelligence, but also through NGOs reporting on the ground and journalists, frankly, who give feedback as to who's being hit by whom," Toner said.
    Details of the implementation were still being worked out, he said: "I think the work in front of the task force over the next several days is to work out kind of standard operating procedures and working methods for the task force to implement the ceasefire."

    Civilians still dying

    This is not the first time a ceasefire date has been agreed.
    On February 12, Kerry announced that world powers meeting in Munich, Germany, had agreed a target for a cessation of hostilities in Syria a week later.
    That date came and went and the fighting and deaths continued.
    The group Physicians for Human Rights expressed skepticism that latest truce would stop the violence on the ground in Syria.
    "The Russian Federation and the United States will establish a communication hotline and, if necessary and appropriate, a working group to exchange relevant information after the cessation of hostilities has gone into effect," their statement said.
    "Russia will conduct the necessary work with Damascus and the legitimate Syrian leadership. We expect that the United States will do the same with regard to their allies and the groups they support," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an address published on the Kremlin website.

    'Moment of promise'

    U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the draft document promising, but said in a statement that its success requires compliance by all parties involved.
    "If implemented and adhered to, this cessation will not only lead to a decline in violence, but also continue to expand the delivery of urgently needed humanitarian supplies to besieged areas and support a political transition to a government that is responsive to the desires of the Syrian people," he said.
    "This is a moment of promise, but the fulfillment of that promise depends on actions."

    Are there loopholes?

    The terms of the agreement do not call for a total surrender of arms.
    Warring parties are asked to commit "to proportionate use of force (i.e., no greater than required to address an immediate threat) if and when responding in self-defense."
    Asked at a Monday briefing whether this could be misused to continue attacks, State Department spokesman Mark Toner acknowledged setting benchmarks and monitoring the cessation of hostilities won't be easy.
    "There's not going to be any force on the ground or monitors on the ground to look at this, other than where we get information from in terms of intelligence, but also through NGOs reporting on the ground and journalists, frankly, who give feedback as to who's being hit by whom," Toner said.
    Details of the implementation were still being worked out, he said: "I think the work in front of the task force over the next several days is to work out kind of standard operating procedures and working methods for the task force to implement the ceasefire."

    Civilians still dying

    This is not the first time a ceasefire date has been agreed.
    On February 12, Kerry announced that world powers meeting in Munich, Germany, had agreed a target for a cessation of hostilities in Syria a week later.
    That date came and went and the fighting and deaths continued.
    The group Physicians for Human Rights expressed skepticism that latest truce would stop the violence on the ground in Syria.

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