(CNN) -- The buildup of separatist forces in Donetsk, Ukraine, and Moscow's patently confrontational tone are raising the specter of another offensive in eastern Ukraine before winter grips the region.On Wednesday, NATO warned that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops" had been spotted entering Ukraine.
Is this crisis about to flare up again, just two months after Russia withdrew its forces?
Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow.
The invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire. That might explain why Moscow is aggravating NATO with airspace violations and playing alleged underwater games with Sweden, moves that appear aimed at keeping the Russian public in a confrontational mood.
The problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin is that none of this is likely to sustain his astronomical approval ratings or keep economic woes from chipping away at public support for the Ukrainian adventure.
Another motivating factor could be that pro-Russian separatists simply do not control enough of the Donbass, the populous region that includes Donetsk, to have made this conflict worthwhile for Russia. The territory controlled by them looks awfully small in comparison to lofty talk of re-establishing a grand Novorossiya, and the ceasefire line of control left many separatist home cities under Ukrainian control, so the separatists seem keen to fight for the rest.
Is this crisis about to flare up again, just two months after Russia withdrew its forces?
Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow.
The invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire. That might explain why Moscow is aggravating NATO with airspace violations and playing alleged underwater games with Sweden, moves that appear aimed at keeping the Russian public in a confrontational mood.
The problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin is that none of this is likely to sustain his astronomical approval ratings or keep economic woes from chipping away at public support for the Ukrainian adventure.
Another motivating factor could be that pro-Russian separatists simply do not control enough of the Donbass, the populous region that includes Donetsk, to have made this conflict worthwhile for Russia. The territory controlled by them looks awfully small in comparison to lofty talk of re-establishing a grand Novorossiya, and the ceasefire line of control left many separatist home cities under Ukrainian control, so the separatists seem keen to fight for the rest.
Starting another campaign in Ukraine would mean a new spiral of unpredictable events -- yet Moscow's calculations might be based on a different reading of the situation.
For a start, sanctions are not the source of Russia's economic woes, but more a humiliating annoyance. In the winter, Russia has a comparative advantage in economic reprisals, because it can threaten gas cutoffs to Europe in retaliation for new sanctions. Ukraine's energy dependence and broken economy, along with relatively weak Western promises of financial aid, suggest that Kiev would have to sue for peace no matter what Moscow does.
And what does Russia gain from maintaining the peace anyway? It will not raise the price of oil or stop ruble speculation, and the United States does not appear keen to start rolling back sanctions, even though it genuinely needs Russian cooperation on Iran, Syria, and ISIS in the Middle East. Now that Republicans have regained control of the U.S. Senate, Russia knows there is little it can practically do to lift the sanctions anyway.
Illegitimate elections in the separatist regions and the massing of Russian forces only reinforce the impression that Moscow has no interest in implementing the Minsk agreement or in reconciliation with the West. And while it is true that a renewed quest to widen separatist-held territory would be a reckless adventure, fraught with costs for everyone involved, reckless foreign policy risk seems to be the new normal in Russia.
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