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The Real Madrid forward has been in brilliant form in the big games of late, so what can the Premier League side do to silence the Portuguese superstar on Tuesday?
For somebody who's scored 214 club goals in the last three-and-a-bit seasons, it seems obvious to say that the best way to keep Cristiano Ronaldo quiet is to keep him out of the penalty area.
But that is the simple truth, a fact backed up by taking a look at his touch and heat maps in his biggest - and most relevant - matches.
He is the runaway top scorer in this season's competition with 16 goals. Unlike in recent years, not even Lionel Messi (six) can keep up with him: Luis Suarez, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller (all eight) are his closest challengers. Unsurprisingly, he has hit more shots than anybody else (82 including blocked efforts, 58 excluding). His nearest challenger in both categories is Zlatan Ibrahimovic (41 and 34).
Ronaldo boasts an average of 8.2 shots per game, and 1.6 goals. When scoring his hat-trick against Wolfsburg in the quarter-finals and his four goals against Malmo in the group stage, he set up camp in the opposition area.
Ronaldo heatmaps for matches against Wolfsburg at home (left) and Malmo away (right)
But there are two striking examples of when he has been kept out of the opposition box, and these matches are when he has most struggled: against Paris Saint-Germain at home in the group stages and Wolfsburg away in the quarter-finals.
Ronaldo heatmaps for matches against PSG at home (left) and Wolfsburg away (right)
Against PSG, he had his fewest shots of any match in the whole competition (three, with just one on target), while against Wolfsburg he fired off six shots (four excluding blocked efforts) but saw just one hit the target.
He scored on neither occasion.
The Portuguese has evolved into a more of a penalty box striker over the years, and while he has scored six goals from outside the box this season (two in the Champions League, in the aforementioned home games against Malmo and Wolfsburg), they account for just 12.7% of his total goals. In his first season in Madrid, 24.2% of his goals were scored from outside the area.
Keeping him out of the box is crucial.
One of the most impressive aspects of City's Champions League campaign is their pressing in midfield. In Sevilla earlier this season - their best performance of the season - a tenacious midfield comprising Yaya Toure, Fernando and Fernandinho got in the Spaniards' faces to inflict upon them their only home defeat in their last 16 European matches. Sevilla have won the other 15.
The City trio reprised those roles in Kiev in February and then, with Toure out, Kevin De Bruyne stepped into the breach for both legs against PSG.
City have just one win against the Premier League's top eight teams, but find themselves in the Champions League final four. The disconnect lies in the protection afforded to the back four by a hard-working midfield trio in Europe.
Whereas there have been gaping holes in the midfield in domestic matches, the European approach has disrupted the flow of the opposition, squeezed the space in front of the back four and helped cut off the supply lines to the forwards.
City have often let their opposition have the ball at the back, but push up on central midfield players in key areas.
By fair means or foul, they spring into life and set about the opposition midfield at the right moment. Fernandinho, for example, has committed the most fouls in the Champions League this season. With 32, he has 10 more than Madrid's Casemiro in second place. Of the teams remaining in the competition, City have committed the most fouls (126), three more than Atletico Madrid and their famed dark arts.
These midfield battles will be key in stopping Ronaldo getting the ball.
Against both PSG and Wolfsburg, Ronaldo had his fewest touches in the tournament (48 and 45, respectively). In Paris, Madrid's rhythm was disrupted as Laurent Blanc's men made their most tackles in a single European game this season (27, winning 18) and committed their second most amount of fouls on home soil (13). Madrid lost eight tackles, more than in any other European away game this season.
As a result, Toni Kroos made his fewest passes of the season (78). In the rest of his away games he averages 114. Likewise for Casemiro, who recorded just 51 passes in France. Against Shakthar and Malmo on the road, he made 90 and 112 passes, respectively. Kroos found Ronaldo on eight occasions, Casemiro on six, the same as Marcelo. The left-back, who often links up with Ronaldo, played his fewest passes of the tournament so far, too.
Wolfsburg's approach was different - Madrid started well but fell to pieces after conceding an early penalty - but they did make 13 fouls (their joint most on home soil). In fact, while Madrid were given little time to think in Paris, on this occasion they rushed themselves, with Kroos and Casemiro, as well as the returning Luka Modric, trying and failing to find killer balls.
Modric and Kroos recorded their lowest passing accuracy of the campaign, with Casemiro recording his second lowest (behind his efforts in Paris).
Against Wolfsburg, Kroos found Ronaldo on eight occasions, while Modric located him six times and Casemiro twice. When Ronaldo starred against Malmo at home, James Rodriguez found him on 13 occasions. Against Wolfsburg at home, Kroos picked him out 12 times. He thrives on the service.
| SPANISH AND GERMAN LESSONS |
Cristiano has been harder to stop since the arrival of Zinedine Zidane as coach because the whole team has stepped up. Now, Ronaldo relies on his team-mates for support but under Rafa Benitez that did not arrive in the biggest games. In the 4-0 home loss to Barcelona in the Clasico, there were vast spaces between the midfield and the attack - something that the Frenchman has sought to improve in his 16 weeks in the job.
With Zidane in charge, Ronaldo has hit goals in many of the big games - including the winner in the Clasico at Camp Nou and his hat-trick against Wolfsburg in the Champions League in the quarter-finals.
However, one team that has frustrated him continually in recent meetings is Atletico. By squeezing the spaces in midfield, Simeone’s side have cut the supply line and forced Ronaldo into areas where he no longer has much of an impact. That was the case in both matches this season and most recently in the 1-0 loss for Los Blancos at the Bernabeu at the end of February.
City may look to replicate such tactics, while it will be key to avoid allowing the Portuguese space in and around the area where he can be so dangerous. They will also look to push him onto his weaker left foot to stop any long-range blockbusters like the one he scored in the 7-1 thrashing of Celta at the Bernabeu back in early March.
"We made a mistake in that goal,” Celta coach Toto Berizzo said afterwards. "You can’t let Ronaldo turn and shoot like that."
And along the same lines, Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini said recently: "How do you mark Ronaldo? You try not to leave him alone and don't let him shoot on his right foot."
Also important will be City’s marking at set pieces, with many of Cristiano’s goals coming from headers these days. Whoever plays at the back for the Premier League side on Tuesday will need to keep the Portuguese under control at corners in particular, where his aerial ability can do damage.
That may be easier said than done, however. When he last played against a Manchester club in the Champions League (United in 2013), Ronaldo leapt high to head home and Sir Alex Ferguson famously said afterwards: "His kneecap was at the height of [Patrice] Evra’s head. Even [Lionel] Messi can’t do that."
City beat PSG in the last round and former Manchester City great Rodney Marsh told Goal: "I thought City handled [Zlatan] Ibrahimovic pretty well with the two Ferns (Fernando and Fernandinho) shutting down the service over two legs.
"They can do the same again at home against CR7, but they will have to watch [Gareth] Bale coming in from the right, so that may be a man-to-man job for the City left back."
And he claims City can look to Madrid’s first match against Wolfsburg, when Ronaldo was quiet after seeing an early strike ruled out for offside.
"Wolfsburg did excellently in their home leg against Madrid, so there is no reason City can't do the same," he said.
"Although to do that, Jesus Navas will have to double up as a second right-back when City lose possession."
So that is the blueprint for stopping Cristiano Ronaldo - now Manchester City just have to execute it to perfection in order to take another giant step towards the Champions League final.
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