Where Manchester United v Chelsea will be won & lost

goal.com

The home side have struggled defensively this season and the Blues could take advantage if their forward line can fire.

Rarely has a clash between Manchester United and Chelsea felt like such a mismatch. Sunday’s hosts have made an uninspiring start to the new season, hampered by a leaky back-line and imbalanced XI, and are closer to last-placed QPR than the league leaders, while a fixture list that ought to have been a gentle initiation to the Premier League for Louis van Gaal has quickly descended into a baptism of fire.

While the veteran Dutch coach has been taught some harsh lessons about the competitiveness of English football, Chelsea have been sweeping aside all before them. The west Londoners have a five-point lead at the top of the table, have already traversed their trickiest away tie of the season and are one of only nine teams across Europe yet to suffer defeat domestically.

Thus, Jose Mourinho is unlikely to grant this United incarnation the respect he has previously shown. Even as recently as last season he went to Old Trafford looking merely to grind out a 0-0 draw, with the full extent of United’s regression not yet apparent by then, but his current Chelsea side, bristling with flair and attacking intent, will be targeting another swash-buckling victory – it remains to be seen if they can even play any other way.

But United are a curious, unpredictable side.  They have continuously shown they are a rather disjointed work in progress, one built on a porous defence which was not strengthened as it ought to have been in the summer transfer window, but few teams have quite such an abundance of players capable of out-of-nothing magic and match-winning brilliance.



Chelsea will be familiar with the best of those weapons. Angel Di Maria was signed on Mourinho's watch at Real Madrid and scored or assisted 50 La Liga goals in his three seasons under the Portuguese. Juan Mata, a Champions League winner like Di Maria, assisted 27 Premier League goals before being axed by Mourinho in January, deemed not to require the athleticism and speed in possession the new-look Chelsea required. Meanwhile, Radamel Falcao, in the Uefa Super Cup, and Robin van Persie, at Stamford Bridge, have both bagged hat-tricks against the Blues.

United’s dangerous attack is throbbing with firepower, though admittedly, save for the genius of Di Maria, it has largely been dormant this season. But, much like United are no longer the force they once were, Chelsea’s defence is no longer the immovable, strangling unit of old either, and the addition of more flair and bravado has chipped away at the solidity and pragmatism Mourinho is usually so noted for.

Now the Chelsea defence feels like a possible weakness, and, with Cesar Azpilicueta’s suspension robbing the back-line of the familiarity they are used to (Mourinho has stuck with the same back five and defensive midfielder in each of the Blues’ eight league games this term), United’s attack will fancy their chances.

The trade-off between more attacking gumption and less defensive resolve was most evident at Goodison Park, where Chelsea claimed a 6-3 victory. "It was wonderful for everyone watching - but not for me," bemoaned Mourinho afterwards. "We cannot make so many defensive mistakes. Today we showed we are improving in other areas but not keeping the balance in defence."

The 23 Premier League goals Chelsea have scored makes this season Mourinho’s second-most prolific start to a campaign – behind only the 2011-12 season at Madrid, when Cristiano Ronaldo averaged a Liga goal every 72 minutes – but it is also his worst defensively, having let in eight goals (more than in any other campaign) and kept just three clean sheets (as many as Burnley). In fact, Chelsea have already conceded 53 per cent of the 15 goals they conceded across the entirety of their 2004-05 title-winning campaign.



Mourinho has, somewhat surprisingly, progressively moved away from the ultra-defensive style he was once known for and now advocates a much more adventurous brand of football - though there is still a sense that he has the defensive masterclass his Inter side produced against Barcelona in 2010 lurking up his sleeve if needs must, not that United are likely to merit it.

The man who once branded Arsenal’s 5-4 win over Tottenham a "disgrace" back in 2004 - "In a three-against-three training match, if the score reaches 5-4 I send the players back to the dressing rooms as they are not defending properly," he mused - now has a side who could become very accustomed to such scorelines.

Yet, as vulnerable as Chelsea’s defence may now be, United’s remains far worse. Van Gaal, having initially tinkered with a 3-5-2 formation, has returned to a more traditional back four, though the only clean sheets his side have recorded were against newly promoted Burnley and QPR while only Everton (10) and Newcastle (nine) have made more defensive errors than the Red Devils (eight).

Equally worrying is that the team are actually seven points down on the tally they picked up in equivalent fixtures last term, all of which were played under David Moyes, and their goal difference is eight worse off too.

Whether Diego Costa plays or not, United feel ill-equipped to deal with the power Chelsea possess, and Van Gaal has little intention of sacrificing flair in favour of solidity: "I don’t think that is the solution," he said after watching his side draw with West Brom. Marouane Fellaini could be utilised to add "physical balance" - much needed, given that United have conceded the third most headed goals while Chelsea have had the second most headed shots on target – but otherwise the Dutchman looks set to engage in a shootout, two star-studded attacks against two lacklustre defences.

As Van Gaal also remarked, however, Chelsea are "another cookie" to West Brom, and he risks biting off more than he can chew by trying to beat the Blues at their own game.